South Africa: Zuma unleashed

South Africa: Zuma unleashed

By ADRIENNE KLASA

There are easier and harder jobs in this world. Then there was Pravin Gordhan’s job.

When South Africa’s embattled finance minister was summarily summoned home from a trip abroad by president Jacob Zuma on 27 March, rumours swirled that his firing was imminent.

A cabinet shuffle followed within days. To a roar of protest from investors and many within South Africa’s political establishment, Mr Gordhan was shown the exit.

It did not come as a surprise; for Mr Gordhan, it might even have come as a relief.

The president is engaged in high stakes gamble in a bid to maintain control of his party, the African National Congress (ANC), ahead of a leadership contest at the end of 2017. His actions now risk an economic meltdown and a party revolt. Why imperil so much?

President Zuma’s determination to to get rid of his respected and independent-minded finance minister should not be interpreted as a cornered man lashing out. The president is far too good a political operative for that. Rather, facing a direct challenge to his power Mr Zuma is throwing off caution with two aims.

One is to demonstrate his primacy through a domestic power play – which firing Mr Gordhan undoubtedly is. The other is to make good on patronage promises in order to shore up support from those who depend on his presidency.

Mr Gordhan stood in the way of many of these as the finance ministry cracked down on corruption and cronyism within the government. As he loses public and party faction support, Mr Zuma can no longer afford to let that stand.

The president’s calculus appears to be that while objections to Mr Gordhan’s ouster will be loud, the ANC and his external opponents are too divided to unite in action against him. He may well prove correct, to South Africa’s detriment.

Deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa, a contender for ANC leadership and an increasingly vocal critic of the president, called Mr Gordhan’s firing “unacceptable”. However neither he nor other ANC heavyweights have resigned in protest. In a country where political discourse is often inflammatory, words only mean so much.

Mr Gordhan survived repeated attempts by Mr Zuma and his backers to indict, smear and push him out. Meanwhile, discontent with Mr Zuma’s leadership is reaching a fever pitch. At the 29 March funeral of anti-apartheid hero Ahmed Kathrada, members of Zuma’s own cabinet applauded calls for the president to resign.

Mr Zuma’s administration has been embroiled in a seemingly endless string of scandals, from the president’s refusal to pay back public money spent on upgrading his private residence to the near collapse of the national social grants system on which millions depend due to mismanagement.

The finance ministry’s pursuit of transparency put Mr Gordhan in direct and public dispute with Zuma cronies, most notably the powerful Gupta family. The Guptas made little secret of their intention to see Mr Gordhan replaced.

Public support for Mr Zuma is also on the wane. Loyalty to the ANC as the party that liberated black South Africans from the blight of apartheid runs deep, but the party had its worst election performance ever in the August 2016 local elections.

South Africa’s cities voted for opposition candidates in unprecedented numbers. No opposition party is close to being able to rival the ANC at the national level – yet. But a younger, disillusioned population is clearly prepared to entertain political alternatives. Mr Zuma’s flawed leadership has played no small role in this turning of the tides.

The country has been circling a credit rating downgrade to junk status for some time. Multiple downgrades look all but inevitable now, despite newly appointed finance minister Malusi Gigaba’s claim that he will defend the country’s investment-grade rating.

Foreign interests and domestic businesses alike have been loud in their criticism of the president’s actions. Mr Zuma and his new finance minister’s determination to pursue “radical transformation of the economy” – an agenda that Mr Gordhan had laboured to temper – will further damage investor confidence.

If South Africa becomes a default risk, it will set off a vicious cycle. Investors will flee and the rand – which has lost about half its value against the dollar since 2011 – will fall still further. Prices and interest rates will shoot up for average South Africans.

Playing fast and loose with South Africa’s already fragile economy will have consequences for its democracy. Twenty years on, apartheid as a system has ended but the gulf of inequality that separates the glittering glass houses of Cape Town’s beach enclaves from the struggles of most South Africans remains staggering.

Voters are growing increasingly restless with this stagnation, as they should. How far the party of Nelson Mandela has fallen, with Mr Zuma and his narrow interests the albatross around its neck.

Protests and strikes have dogged the Zuma administration. These are only likely to intensify if the economy worsens, which is all but guaranteed now that Mr Gordhan has been relieved of his impossible job.